Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 72133.272436 76260.087310 80391.288428 84834.124911 89473.898193 94173.283858 99289.765010
2025-03-30 65666.928150 71992.398807 78507.148253 85708.645785 93436.442471 101470.243272 110443.799799
2025-04-06 60588.447191 68378.787118 76585.133180 85854.209766 96012.299321 106785.748393 119055.279501
2025-04-13 56522.240377 65374.923930 74879.055857 85808.817977 97997.183125 111137.314105 126340.163990
2025-04-20 54022.757752 63820.918646 74512.967381 86998.705202 101128.617525 116572.691572 134677.706810
2025-04-27 51913.226964 62511.061059 74246.322408 88138.928810 104067.347799 121689.185839 142586.451683
2025-05-04 49751.964516 60985.221701 73594.550560 88711.611754 106252.683970 125874.222508 149387.517358
2025-05-11 47524.987896 59249.529968 72580.994113 88754.913238 107733.801368 129183.206509 155137.228061
2025-05-18 45635.777422 57806.906763 71814.340386 88997.726199 109371.803042 132617.673312 160997.053697
2025-05-25 43850.063631 56397.797622 71006.117426 89116.212671 110801.001707 135764.293669 166495.697146
2025-06-01 42741.152151 55746.808131 71049.073168 90202.395286 113341.715040 140195.385114 173503.301975
2025-06-08 41058.848247 54320.831043 70092.793398 90026.215145 114324.759959 142752.590805 178278.313287
2025-06-15 40213.183970 53911.028536 70363.955290 91344.754566 117131.508486 147524.498718 185766.652531
2025-06-22 39181.297360 53226.356099 70263.966354 92183.747312 119344.481062 151590.718522 192437.679227
2025-06-29 37876.420327 52144.735603 69626.348401 92318.075628 120664.508512 154563.037343 197789.477067
2025-07-06 36564.943976 51005.331701 68871.726410 92265.431553 121720.936174 157194.395619 202721.334432
2025-07-13 35936.702659 50722.152152 69175.938801 93526.258855 124401.916362 161817.293590 210109.454934
2025-07-20 35324.555857 50433.256929 69451.366000 94735.018930 127011.881269 166359.811136 217423.511082
2025-07-27 34484.611867 49812.220787 69273.047160 95342.122339 128849.613132 169944.071020 223566.213090
2025-08-03 33449.191913 48895.680102 68680.450893 95388.016878 129953.893104 172603.994653 228562.192826
2025-08-10 32554.029606 48138.239389 68269.159377 95645.428764 131311.621984 175574.616254 233953.128063
2025-08-17 31648.589686 47337.678367 67774.859727 95771.037022 132482.798319 178302.693138 239044.427299
2025-08-24 31194.417441 47139.711745 68067.294213 96922.426185 134980.073950 182719.564431 246293.165886